The effect of climate change on the production of Iran’s agricultural sector: a case study of wheat crop
Climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, and its effect will undoubtedly be very severe and destructive in countries like Iran, which geographically have dry and semi-arid climates. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector, due to its strong dependence on natural phenomena, It is exposed to more severe effects of these changes. In fact, climate change changes the price of products and the income of farmers by changing the level of production of agricultural products.
In this study, in order to measure the effects of climate change on agricultural production, the effect of different climate scenarios on rainfall, cultivated area, income and price of wheat as one of the most important agricultural products of Iran has been investigated.The results show that among the investigated scenarios, the combined climate change and climate change scenarios have had stronger effects on the investigated indicators. Before dealing with the economic issues of these changes, first the effect of the changes on rainfall was evaluated. The results indicate a sharp decrease in rainfall during the 20 years under investigation, and the area under cultivation and the amount of income will also decrease further. As a result, it will have a greater impact on the price of wheat.
The results of this research will be the continuation of climate change conditions and the failure to adopt appropriate policies to face and adapt to these changes and the side effects of these changes will be unavoidable. A decrease in income and an increase in price lead to a decrease in the welfare of producers and consumers. This can pose a serious threat to economic well-being and food security.Therefore, in order to deal with the negative effects of these climate changes, the following suggestions can be made.
1. Implementation of nature-oriented agriculture: The goal of nature-oriented agriculture is to obtain fertile soil, food security, preserve biodiversity and preserve the environment. Unlike conventional agriculture, nature-oriented agriculture seeks to integrate management conditions, and nature-oriented agriculture includes ecological or ecological agriculture, organic or dynamic agriculture, and the ultimate goal of these agricultures is high production, without damage to resources and security. It is a food that is the basis of sustainable agriculture. Using one of these agricultural methods is very important, especially in the issue of food security.
2. Change in the cultivation pattern: According to the research findings, the area under cultivation and wheat production in Iran will be greatly reduced under the influence of climate change.In addition to food security, this will affect the well-being of consumers and producers. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize and change the cultivation pattern in order to reduce the cost burden of climate change in the agricultural sector