The effect of climate change on the production of Iran’s agricultural sector: a case study of wheat crop

Climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, and its effect will undoubtedly be very severe and destructive in countries like Iran, which geographically have dry and semi-arid climates. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector, due to its strong dependence on natural phenomena, It is exposed to more severe effects of these changes. In fact, climate change changes the price of products and the income of farmers by changing the level of production of agricultural products.

In this study, in order to measure the effects of climate change on agricultural production, the effect of different climate scenarios on rainfall, cultivated area, income and price of wheat as one of the most important agricultural products of Iran has been investigated.The results show that among the investigated scenarios, the combined climate change and climate change scenarios have had stronger effects on the investigated indicators. Before dealing with the economic issues of these changes, first the effect of the changes on rainfall was evaluated. The results indicate a sharp decrease in rainfall during the 20 years under investigation, and the area under cultivation and the amount of income will also decrease further. As a result, it will have a greater impact on the price of wheat.

The results of this research will be the continuation of climate change conditions and the failure to adopt appropriate policies to face and adapt to these changes and the side effects of these changes will be unavoidable. A decrease in income and an increase in price lead to a decrease in the welfare of producers and consumers. This can pose a serious threat to economic well-being and food security.Therefore, in order to deal with the negative effects of these climate changes, the following suggestions can be made.

1. Implementation of nature-oriented agriculture: The goal of nature-oriented agriculture is to obtain fertile soil, food security, preserve biodiversity and preserve the environment. Unlike conventional agriculture, nature-oriented agriculture seeks to integrate management conditions, and nature-oriented agriculture includes ecological or ecological agriculture, organic or dynamic agriculture, and the ultimate goal of these agricultures is high production, without damage to resources and security. It is a food that is the basis of sustainable agriculture. Using one of these agricultural methods is very important, especially in the issue of food security.

2. Change in the cultivation pattern: According to the research findings, the area under cultivation and wheat production in Iran will be greatly reduced under the influence of climate change.In addition to food security, this will affect the well-being of consumers and producers. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize and change the cultivation pattern in order to reduce the cost burden of climate change in the agricultural sector

The results of the soil biochemical study on rhizospheric organic acids, especially lactic, citric and oxalic acids, have shown that the rapid and complete metabolism of these three acids by soil microorganisms in order to use them as a source of carbon and energy, leads to an increase Enzyme activities such as dehydrogenase and phosphatase are found in the soil. Two organic acids, lactic and citric, create the most biological stimulation by making certain changes in the structure of microbiological communities. became. The use of lactic acid causes rapid changes in the composition of microbiota, favoring the proliferation of microorganisms involved in soil degradation and fertility, such as the Bacillus genus and the Micrococcaceae family

carbon footprint

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the carbon footprint is the change in climate that is directly or indirectly attributable to human activities that alter the composition of the world’s atmosphere

Activities such as driving, using electricity generated from fossil fuels, flying and buying food that travel long distances all contribute to your footprint. Fortunately, there are specific steps we can take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help curb climate change, including by switching to clean energy sources, changing the way we travel, and reducing consumption by recycling and reusing everything. We can reduce our carbon footprint

Measuring is knowing

“Over the past five years, efforts have been made to optimize soil carbon content by farmers in the European Union. While we must remember that increasing soil carbon storage is a long-term issue anyway, But soil with optimal carbon content helps fight global warming and provides better performance for the farmer

Mia, one of the farmers, says: “By creating organic matter (carbon) in the soil, in the first place, a large amount of CO2 is stored from the atmosphere. Carbon supply also preserves the life of the soil. A healthy soil food web means much less cost and labor for the farmer: synthetic fertilizers and pesticides can be eliminated. The soil gets structured and after several years of trying to increase the amount of carbon in the soil, you see that more water can penetrate the soil. The density of the soil is less, and all this means that such soil and the crops on it are more resistant to longer periods of drought, and in case of heavy rains, water can penetrate the soil faster

Important effects of climate on agriculture

Climate change may affect agriculture at local and regional scales. Key effects including:

1. Changes in agricultural productivity

Climate change can improve or worsen the conditions for growing crops in different regions. For example, changes in temperature, precipitation, and frost-free days lead to longer growing seasons in almost every region. Some farmers may be able to plant longer maturing crops or more cropping periods in total, while others may need more irrigation during a longer, warmer growing season. Air pollution may also damage crops, plants and forests. For example, when plants absorb large amounts of ground-level ozone, photosynthesis is reduced, growth is slower, and there is greater susceptibility to disease

Climate change can also increase the risk of wildfires. Fires cause major risks to agricultural lands, grasslands and pastures. Changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to increase the incidence and range of insects, weeds and diseases

Pollination is vital for more than 100 cultivated crops. Warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall can affect when plants bloom and pollinators such as bees and butterflies emerge. Pollination can be reduced

• Effects on water and soil resources
  
  

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of heavy rains, which can damage crops by eroding soil and reducing soil nutrients. Heavy rains can also increase agricultural runoff into oceans, lakes, and streams. This runoff can damage the water. Sea level rise and hurricanes are also threats to coastal farming communities. These threats include erosion, loss of agricultural land, and saltwater intrusion that can contaminate water sources. Climate change is expected to worsen these threats

• Health challenges for agricultural and livestock workers
  
  

Agricultural workers face several climate-related health risks. These include exposure to heat and other extreme weather, exposure to more pesticides due to the widespread presence of pests, disease-carrying pests such as mosquitoes and ticks, and poor air quality. Language barriers, lack of access to health care, and other factors can exacerbate these risks. Heat and humidity can also affect the health and productivity of animals raised for meat, milk and eggs

What can we do?

Planting a pollinator garden with native species is just one way to help pollinators like bees and butterflies thrive

We can reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture in many ways, including:

Use smart agricultural methods for climate. Farmers can use weather forecasting tools, plant cover crops, and take other actions to help manage weather-related production threats

Agricultural producers can use fertilizers more strategically, and do more to reduce nutrient-laden runoff

Adopt proven research methods to reduce the effects of climate change on crops, such as reducing the use of pesticides and improving pollination and increasing crop resistance

Avoid wasting food. Increase your income and reduce your carbon footprint by carefully planning your shopping trips and storing food properly